covid; stats; saying this mostly to reassure myself
So I ran some numbers.
Even if you only consider New Orleans, where it's pretty bad right now compared to most of the country...
And even if you assume the real number of cases are ten times what's being reported...
And even if you ignore the fact most of us are under 70 here AFAIK... ;p
If you factor in the current death rate and multiply it out, current odds of having COVID-19 here and dying from it are around 0.07%
On a sociological and humanitarian scale, that's still terrifying. That's like 270 people dead right there, and given over 200 are already gone, that figure must be low. And things are only going to get worse from here.
But still. In the grand scheme of things, any individual person's odds of getting through this, even in this particularly rough-hit part of the country, are still pretty high.
I know that doesn't make everything OK, especially since containment isn't working so great and those numbers are going to get somewhat worse. But I really needed to hear the rest of it right now--to hear that death probably *isn't* right outside our door.
covid; stats; saying this mostly to reassure myself
@zebratron2084
When I was thinking about this as the virus started spreading near me was it was roughly a save or on a d20 with a target number of 4 to get severely sick followed by a save or die check of 5 if you failed the first check.
(Assumes an average toughness bonus of +1, with children getting some sort of poorly defined bonus, and monks' class immunity does not apply)
re: covid; stats; saying this mostly to reassure myself
@001zlnv Heh, I've been using almost the exact same metaphor. We're such nerds. :D For me it's been a way to explain to people, "Umm, ok, listen... for the typical person, you basically have to not roll a 1 on a d20... but EVERY SINGLE PERSON in the USA is gonna have to roll, and some people have pretty nasty modifiers."
