covid-19, preparedness, uncomfortable science
Despite the alarmist URI and use of crude extrapolation methods (clustering, simplified mathematical models without more available data), this is the best explainer I've seen so far on how to interpret data from media reports and what to expect the spread and impact of covid-19 to look like: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
covid-19, preparedness, uncomfortable science
Takeaways from my reading of it:
1. Asymptomatic cases are primarily responsible for community spread.
2. There is a lag time of up to two weeks between figures being reported and the number of cases in the wild.
3. When accounting for clusters and other factors, morbidity rate from illness is closer to 0.5-0.9%.
4. However, that rate is much higher when medical facilities are overrun by severe cases.
covid-19, preparedness, uncomfortable science
I don't want to interpret more from these data, since not much is known at this point and people are afraid right now.
My own conclusions for now, re, what I can control beyond medical preparedness: consider skipping large gatherings and travel, even if it's majorly disruptive and reported cases are still low, until adequate testing is available. And please have a plan in place, both for illness and in case major con travel gets disrupted.
